Member-only story
Sanders will Never Win
A story in (very simple) numbers.
Okay guys, I’ve put this in Facebook posts and tweets and everything else so I guess I’m required to do it here. Two things to note, I am not *really* trained in statistics. I can do multidimensional statistics and I’m fairly good in R but I’m not really a statistician. But these are not really difficult tests. I didn’t need to bust out R for this; you can check my math in Excel and a lot of this you can probably do in your head, but we’re going to go through it bit by bit. I’m getting my numbers from Wikipedia and from Google. For some of these I did check and for example Real Clear Politics has differing vote counts and in some cases delegate counts than other sources. Some of this is because data might be pulled from exit polls rather than the actual results or it may have been compiled in a certain point in time and not checked or corrected since. That said, Google generally provides the most up to date results and … well you’ll see. The numbers are such that if I miss even fifty voters in a state it’s not going to change things.
This story starts in 2016. Well, technically it starts well before even 2008 but we’re only going back to 2016 for the time being, and before anyone runs to the comment section and accuses me of rehashing an old battle understand that Sanders in 2016 came much closer than he did in 2020. And that’s actually…
